Establishment of the Baseline for the IWRM in the Ecuadorian Andean Basins: Land Use Change, Water Recharge, Meteorological Forecast and Hydrological Modeling

This study was conducted in the Zamora Huayco (ZH) river basin, located inter-Andean region of southern Ecuador. The objective to describe, through land use/land cover change (LUCC), natural physical processes under current conditions and project them 2029. Moreover, temperature precipitation forecasts were estimated detail possible effects climate change. Using remote sensing techniques, satellite images processed prepare a projection Water recharge considering slope, groundcover, soil texture. Flash floods using lumped models, concatenating information HEC RAS. availability with semi-distributed hydrological model (SWAT). Precipitation data forecasted autoregressive exponential smoothing models. Under forecast, forest shrub covers show growth 6.6%, water projects an increase 7.16%. Flood flows suffer reduction up 16.54%, flow regime 90% probability exceedance is 1.85% (7.72 l/s) higher for 2029 than 2019 scenario, so improvement regulation evident. Forecasts average 0.11 °C 15.63% extreme rainfall by Therefore, intervention strategies Andean basins should be supported prospective studies that use these key variables system integrated management resources.